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China's steel prices will continue in 2005 and fluctuated at a high level
Experts predict that 2005 will continue our steady growth in steel demand, prices are still high and volatile.
"Overall, 2005 will also substantially increase the supply of steel, but by the impact of the international steel market conditions, as well as coal, electricity, oil, transportation bottlenecks, the price will remain at high levels in 2005 to run. Specific trend in steel prices In the first half continued to rise, then slowly decline, but volatility of steel prices will be significantly less than in 2004. "The State Council Development Research Center of Institute of Market Economy Research Associate Li told reporters cloth.
The past year, China's steel output and consumption increase with high, leading enterprises in Shanghai Baosteel Group Corporation is even based on the cumulative production of steel 21.38 million tons, became the world's sixth largest steel company.
Lee announced that in 2005 China's domestic steel demand remains strong mainly because China is in the new round of economic up cycle, the economy will maintain a momentum of steady and rapid development, projected GDP growth of no less than 2005 8.5%. "Steel consumption growth and strength of this projection, the domestic consumption of steel in 2005 will be more than 340 million tons." Similarly, since 2005 the global economy remains relatively high growth rate, international market demand for steel will remain strong. It is predicted that global economic growth in 2005 was still higher than the level of 2001 and 2003, which will increase demand for steel in order to stimulate exports of domestic steel price rise. Coal, electricity, oil, transportation bottlenecks in the steel industry will remain serious. The first 11 months of 2004, the raw coal output reached 1.42738 billion tons, up 15.6%; whole society inventory 106.96 million tons of coal, 2.41 million tons less than the beginning. The current capacity of state-owned large mines are close to saturation. Electricity, the first 11 months of 2004, the national power generation amounted to 1.92713 trillion kwh, up 15.0%. But the country still has 24 provincial power grids have different degrees of power cuts. In transport, the first three quarters of 2004 average daily loading of 100,000 cars a breakthrough, but to meet the freight demand rate only 1 / 3. It is predicted that, despite the 2005 coal, electricity, oil and transportation supply will increase significantly, but still can not meet the needs of rapid growth. Coal, electricity, oil and transportation supply tension will increase steel production and transportation costs, while restrictions on the production of steel to play, so as to further promote the steel prices.
But there are also factors in the maintenance of price stability. First, the iron and steel enterprise production this year will see a substantial increase. According to Lee describes cloth, steel investment project cycle is generally 1 year to 1 year and a half, China's steel industry in 2003 reached 132.907 billion yuan, investment in steel projects in the first half of 2004 reached 81.4 billion yuan. Construction of these projects in 2005 will be basically completed and put into production. According to statistics of China Iron and Steel Industry Association, in 2005 the design capacity of steel-making iron and steel (BOF + EAF) to reach 366 million tons, iron and steel enterprises in 2003 the design capacity of 247 million tons steel, steel making capacity has increased by 119 million tons in two years . 95% of the lumber rate of steel production in 2005 will reach 350 million tons.
Second, higher iron ore prices is unlikely. Since the second half of 2003, as China's steel output grew rapidly, increasing iron ore demand, led to the world iron ore supply is tight, driving the prices up. 2004 world iron ore market price of the mainstream up 18.6%. Faced with the world demand for iron and steel industry driven, the world's major iron ore suppliers have to expand investment, increase productive capacity. The world's three largest iron ore producers?? Brazil CVRD, Australia, BBP and the United Kingdom RIOTINTO?? Has invested billions of dollars to its production capacity from the current 3.9 million tons, increased to 580 million tons. This will maintain a steady supply of the international iron ore market growth in iron ore supply shortage situation eased. In addition, the abolition of the designated operational steel imports will be increased to some extent steel import market. Lee announced that China's current steel imports remain designated company, announced in 2004, the Ministry of Commerce approved the import of steel business and its subordinate units, enterprises engaged in steel imports less than 500. In 2005, according to China's WTO commitments, the deletion of a specific company, the future, registration and filing in accordance with the provisions of the enterprises will be engaged in steel imports. Thus, there will be more and more enterprises to engage in import business of steel into, and the enterprise will gradually penetrate through to the upstream and the downstream extension into the field of steel imports, which will help to increase effective competition in the domestic steel market, led panel products prices decline.
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